TA on markets: cash building on sidelines in big way
money flying into dollar as currency
main instruments are the 30yr TBond, 10yr TNote
US$ is rising in opposite fashion to Euro (think DMark)
all the while, the JapYen is asleep as the wheel doing nada
the currency triangle now is pure dollar/euro with US$ winning
S&P is at the lower boundary on a downtrend channel, ripe for rebound reflex, but is still weak
TBonds and TNotes are showing Cup&Handle reversals now
30yr TBond is breaking out nicely, with yields dropping
10yr TNote is on verge of breaking out, imo
3month TBill is flatlining quiet
a bond rally is to continue at long and intermediate ends
gold, silver, copper are down sharply
first catalyst is slowdown in housing from higher rates
copper is often called the "economy's gold"
it has real uses in housing and elsewhere, responding to slowdowns
Greenshit seems not to care
technology is booming, much of rest of economy might indeed be slowing down
he seems willing to slow down everything more in order to put some drag on that which he fails to comprehend
second catalyst is reduced inflationary fears
Greenshit hasnt given much emphasis to empty inflation claims
big risk: Greenyspan raises rates just when a gradual lessening of upside demand pressure after the Y2K event... NAPM managers are quoted in InvBusDaily as saying the strong Q4 just reported was in part due to special factors, implying Y2K... now the Fed might raise rates just when the economy naturally slows its torrid pace... ABOLISH THE FED, LET LAISSEZ FAIRE WORK
crude oil is at the upper boundary of its uptrend channel
it is due for a pullback, but still is quite strong
widespread dissension among OPEC and other oil producers is necessary to bring out greater supply
Saudi oil minister went on record saying he considered the $20-25 per barrel price range as "ideal"
VIX volatility index is registering near extreme levels again
VIX is in the 30 neighborhood, very bullish for stocks
my guess is S&P will be beneficiary
Advance-Decline Line is looking pathetic
it is a cumulative measure of rising minus declining stocks
I havent seen it look this bad in almost a couple years
as in autumn of 1998
great cover article in Bearons this weekend
purports the handheld device phenomenon is ephemeral
believes wireless phones and related devices will put PDA's in the dust
Psion CEO seems the sharpest of all
talks about three standards:
WAP - internet wireless microbrowser
Bluetooth - connectivity among all camps
EPOC - operating system software
forgot to mention: CDMA - hardware platform
aint it great that Microsoft will be watching this battle?
playing catchup with their bloated, buggy, and late WindowsCE software?
what few have seemed to discuss lately is the upcoming FTC policy change whereby incoming calls to cellphones will cost nothing to the cellphone owner... this will bring about a supercharge to wireless
another topic that seems not be discussed much is the upcoming explosion of Bus-Bus wireless internet usage
if either or both have been discussed, sorry, I missed it
Psion CEO claims that personal data will soon be located on internet sites for access, rather than currently on own our cellphones
handhelds are but a shooting star over the wireless horizon
the PalmTop IPO will be great, but check its progress in three years... toast
/ Jim Willie Beemr BabyDoll |
