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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 671.91

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: James Strauss who wrote (41560)	2/27/2000 2:03:00 PM
From: papa bear	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Hi Jim, Agree. Another way I use to say the same thing, i.e., I believe we will see a rally sometime soon (whatever that means) is through linear regression. On DJ-30, I use a 5-year linear regression, and corresponding channel. The DOW touched the bottom of this channel (and then rallied) in: 7/96, 4/97, and 9/99. Of particular note was the unforgettable 8/98 to 10/98 correction. At this point, the Dow ended up about 13% BELOW the bottom of the channel, but rallied strongly thereafter. At its present closing price, the Dow is 5% below the bottom of the channel, if my arithmetic is right. The formation though indicates a short-term oversold and a possible valley forming. JMH (and amateur) opinion, of course. papa bear

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