goldsnow... I'm not indoctrinated into anything except to watch the money flow.
When people start getting laid off or their salaries decline and they haven't got any discretionary money to put into their retirement plans, THAT'S when I think the bull market will be over.
And when the Bull is over, it won't be because of inflation.
And you're ABSOLUTELY wrong about oil. Oil went to $10 because there was chaos amongst OPEC members and everyone was trying to cut into each other's markets and produce more.
Now they face the problem of maintaining such psychological control on the oil market that they can prevent alternative energy solutions, or greater exploration efforts, from becoming competitive with them.
Also, the price of gas is related to the amount of refining capacity that exists (rather limited due to political reasons), and the refinery production decisions (should I produce more heating oil or more gasoline?)
And listen... with the US encompassing approx 33% of the global economy, I'm not really worried about the demands of Asia. Before the Asian contagion, the US only represented something like 20% of global GDP so there is room for making up some difference. Greenspan just obviously believes that with US growth so strong, it leaves little room for an Asian or European recovery without causing inflation.
I'm not so sure, especially when productivity is being introduced by IT modernizations, and inefficiencies reduced. And this is backed up by the evidence that AG looks at. HE himself admitted that productivity is REAL and not just misjudged based upon the number of hours being worked divided into the amount of increase production.
Btw, with regard to CD's and Banks, that's why I recommended the financial sectors as the next sector that will rotate after the momentum runs out of the technology stocks. AG is FORCING bonds downward artificially by raising the rates. When it turns around the bond market will be due for a tremendous rally and that will set the tone for the financials.
And then, I bet we'll see the first wave of bank mergers in the post-y2k period. Watch the regionals... they have the markets that the big banks want to capture and consolidate.
Regards,
Ron |
