OT OT, sort of.
I attended a fairly major conference last week attended by a number of money managers of all ilks. This may sound a little melodramatic, but the scent of panic was in the air a little. Managers whose styles favored "old growth", (drugs, financials, retail, some established tech) were really fretting. The managers who were in "new growth" (primarily tech and biotech) were really trying to figure where their companies (and resulting portfolios) stood if the bottom fell out of the Naz. The games these guys play are always unclear and foggy by intent, but this time it was more serious and the mood was more somber than I can remember for a while. The sense was that if the Naz. did pull back swiftly, the buying which would take place would be in selected names only, and a premium would be placed on assurance of earnings outlook despite interest rate jitters, economic slowdown, etc. Names mentioned in private conversations were Cisco, Intel, Qualcomm and JDSU. I found only one manager who really knew anything about Rambus except its name, and he was frightened to death of the recent run. He assumed it was all a short squeeze coupled with speculation over the success of Playstation II. He believed the stock would retrench soon. I wasn't impressed with his knowledge of the company or its business plan.
I know this is all smoke and mirrors, but we will see in the days ahead.
Pomp |
