Hi Loki,
The primary force driving the economy and the stock market is consumer spending. Consumer spending is two-thirds of GDP. Many factors affect consumer spending, wages, interest rates, fuel prices, etc. Fuel prices as high as they are hit American wallets hard. But, I suspect, fuel prices will only impact the economy if they persist for long enough and, therefore, will not affect AG's actions unless he sees them staying up. Keep an eye on the forecast for prices.
Interest rates hit consumers hard as most consumers buy on credit. Some forms of interest rate hikes hit consumers sooner than others and the full impact takes time. However, don't believe for a second that high interest rates don't affect tech stocks. If consumer spending slows appreciably investors will rush for the exits and the most speculative issues will be hit the hardest (i.e., tech stocks).
I find the divergence between the DOW and the NASDQ interesting. Are investors rotating out of the traditional DOW stocks into techs? If so, what will happen when the DOW falls enough that these stocks look like bargains and the tech stocks begin to look inflated? Or, is the correction in the DOW and the inversion of the yield curve signaling a downturn in the economy? In either case I question how long the rise in the NASDQ can continue. Although the way things have gone I don't doubt that the run in the NASDQ could surprise me.
I wish I new the answers to some of the above questions, better yet, I wish I had a crystal ball.
Good luck... |
