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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 665.67

-0.9%

Nov 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: HairBall who wrote (41639)	2/28/2000 12:54:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

LG, i agree...a crash would only occur if 'they' lose control for a moment. that said, some sub-indices ARE crashing. i still believe that panics happen from time to time, often for no good reason...all it took in '87 was 3% of the invested capital trying to exit on the same day. however, i would not go as far as predicting such an event, as they are rare, and by their very nature unpredictable. BUT as i've mentioned before, we are in a high risk time segment. since i have posted the first warning about this the non-tech indices have continued to move lower fast and with little respite. i arrive at the period of high risk by counting the days from the top of S&P and Dow. between day 40-65 from the top is the high risk segment whenever the market has declined strongly from the high with sharply weakening internals. the Nasdaq is ALWAYS the last to decline, although i must admit the extent of the divergence is rather baffling by now... regards, hb

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