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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (9507)2/28/2000 7:17:00 AM
From: Liatris Spicata  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
Ron-

<<When foolish governments cause people to lose money, it is very hard to get them to support some foolish nationalistic fantasy like conquering Taiwan.>>

Well I hope you are right about that, but I'm afraid I'm not as optimistic as you are. For one thing, for the most part, it's different folks involved. Agreed, the genuine entrepreneurial class (as opposed to the crony capitalists)- i.e. the people who are making the new China- are probably not those who are going to be whipped up into some nationalistic hysteria to repatriate the motherland. I'm not so confident that applies to Party members whose business acumen relies on their political connections: remember, these are people who excel at getting along by going along. I suspect they are not about to bite the hand that feeds them.

Political leaders throughout history have not had to rely on what I call legitimate business people to generate support for their policies. There are plenty of other saps they can recruit to do their bidding. Just as one example of many, Louis XIV drove the Huguenots- who disproportionately controlled the private business sector in France- from the nation. So at least in the short run, a dictatorship like China can basically ignore the will of it's private business community when making decisions.

I think yesterday's NYT had a reasonable perspective on why the "Taiwan issue" is such a tough nut to crack in China: viz. a lot of careers of politicians and Party members are wrapped up in "One China".

Regards,

Larry

P.S. to nihil: You seem to have an interesting background and perspective on Sino matters. I hope this thread may receive the benefit of more of your contributions.
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