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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Cory Gault who wrote (95717)2/28/2000 8:31:00 PM
From: Gopher Broke  Read Replies (2) of 1572384
 
Cory, re: both stocks moving up

I am looking for returns from my AMD investment that are substantially higher then the yearly increase in the processor market. OK, I am already up 100% on AMD but I are greedy and looking for another 100% this year.

You can call me misguided, but at least you should be able to understand why I think Intel might have a problem with their revenue growth over the next few quarters. My investment objectives require AMD to take the lions share of any growth in the market. And since competition will inevitably lower prices then Intel will also have to reduce their ASPs. Putting aside the chances of AMD's success, the outlook does not look particularly rosy for Intel in any scenario I can think of.

So why not short Intel? Stock prices reflect investor allegiance not fundamentals. Intel's stock price will drop when investors realize that their Intel investment is going to yield 15% PA not the 50% PA it has in the past. This Q is too risky, but maybe in May sometime.

Incidentally, a lot of the money I am now investing in AMD I made by investing in Intel, starting back in 92. I sold all my Intel investment a couple of years ago following a presentation on Merced. I remain grateful to Intel, just no longer convinced they can retain their monopoly for much longer.
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