Mardy, rr, and Mike - Okay, I've got the asbestos suit on.
rr, FWIW this is my take on the next 20 years, and where my money's going.
Perhaps it would be helpful to propose an ideal, 20 years from now, which is presently unattainable: as much bandwidth as you can use, fixed and mobile.
For fixed bandwidth, FTTH would almost certainly provide the solution - and that solution is achievable now - but at very high cost. There is potentially enough bandwidth there to simultaneously satisfy all conceivable needs in entertainment or communication. Nothing else even comes close.
Bandwidth Nirvana, for wireless, is more elusive. Unless you create a fixed-point to fixed-point wireless "pipe", we all recognize the constraints on wireless, not least our unwillingness to be subjected to blasts of RF radiation so somebody else can surf the net, or phone Aunt Mabel.
It's fairly clear that the sweet spot, right now, is in pumping up the cell phone infrastructure. That's where the payoff is, that's where the revenue is. If the providers are smart, they'll be able to rake in extra cash by making themselves "enablers" of on-line transactions conducted on cell phones. LECs might conceivably be able to offset massive losses in copper infrastructure by tapping into that technology. Otherwise, well, they'll lose at both ends; LD will gravitate to VOIP, and so will local calls. The QoS solution isn't here yet, but it's coming. A good part of the solution will derive from QoS implemented within domains - relatively easy within a city, using graduated wireless premium services, that crossover onto fiber, where content is again arbitrated by the provider. Copper is a losing proposition, its revenue bases being siphoned off a bit here, a bit there, while the cost of maintenance remains the same. LECs would be wise to use their copper to pull fiber, whatever the cost - or they're toast.
Fixed wireless will survive only where it can compete against FTTH. In some places, it will displace FTTH for years - but eventually it will succumb, except in those places where it is impossible to run fiber. Not likely? Look at our highway system, asphalt and concrete, bridges and superhighways, right to your driveway. Who would have imagined it, in 1910?
My vote is FTTH and mobile wireless, with a long, but temporary blip for fixed wireless. |
