Jim- Asbestos suit? No need. I learn the most when I get disagreement. But in this case, apparently we agree for the most part. I just re-read your ideas and I really can't see how I can argue with them. We may be saying the same thing about copper, but with different time frames. IMO, copper won't be toast for a very long time. I think you maybe jumping to FTTH, without considering FTTC first. That may be only where we differ.
Jim and Marden- Both make excellent points about LMDS/MMDS. In my way out there scenario, I also didn't quite know where the need for massive fixed broadband wireless would come from, hence my question marks. Apparently Jim felt the same. Marden you mention the rest of the world sans North America. Good point.
I find it surprising that neither mentioned Teledesic. No one can rule out the two most wealthy men(Gates/McCaw and Motorola, Boeing, Marconi) in the world, abilities to change the entire landscape for mobile wireless solutions. Years from now, I would hate to be a wireless SP(cellular variety) when they turn on Teledesic. Teledesic has the potential to alter the mobile wireless landscape with their single massive project.
But as Marden points out, if the xMDS solutions are out there at that time, they probably will be around for a long time since it would be paid for. Very similar to the good old twisted copper pair situation. But the dysfunctional, "standards," world of mobile wireless, would seem to be at risk.
Another quick way to prove my point about the power of legacy, take a look at one year chart of Adtran (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/chart.gsp?lotemp=&period=365&chart1=ma&s=adtn&compare=&time=day&i0=1&chart=bar&i1=0&scale=linear&i2=0&i3=0&rbv=1&wpr=0&cci=60&obv=5&dmi=10&macd2=26&macd1=12&sd=5&sk=12&mt=22&rsi=14&lr=25&bbpct=10&bbprd=200&ma1=5&ma2=20&macds=9&smaema=1). The runup is due to plain, simple, old, HDSL replacing T1. And let's not forget about the excitement for HDSL2. Simply a doubling of T1. Yet another good example. Check out Frame Relay growth predictions. There's a lot of power left in the legacy networks and money plays a HUGE role no matter how great the replacement technologies are. -MikeM(From Florida) |
