Gug - associating fact with Bull$hit, and sidestepping the issues, as usual
The first section is generally correct.
Yout second section is bogus - and says little or nothing with regard to IDC
Define winning. QCOM won the uncontested race to 2G CDMAOne (IS95).
You answered your own question.
QCOM PR has successfully wedded itself to the image that 2G CDMAOne IS also 3G CDMA, but the facts do not back up that claim
The facts don't back up the claim, since the claim is a figment of your imagination. QCOM has defined a migration path from IS-95(cdmaOne) via increasingly sophisticated 2.5G protocols (1xrtt etc) to cdma200 (QCOMS 3G WCDMA). This is clearly documented on their website. These solutions are supplemented by HDR - a data only high speed protocol.
The underlying business is off to an underperforming start already.The irregular pattern of Newbridge
Networks performance over the last 7 quarters comes to mind except that expectations are higher in QCOM's case over a longer period of time.
The QCOM stock price is down some 30% from its all time high at the end of last year. IDC is down over 60% for the same period.
What has the comparison between Newbridge got to do with either QCOM or IDC? You would be better served to compare IDC with QCOM, especially as IDC is touted as a 'baby QCOM'.
Globally, Analog and TDMA have 60+M subs in 44 countries. GSM, a variant of TDMA, has 220+M subs in 142 countries. CDMAOne only has 50+M subs in 35 countries with more than half in South Korea. No contest. There are 30M analog subscribers that QCOM has not been able to convert to 2G CDMAOne so that tells you a lot of things.
Another fascinating mix of fact an fiction.
You are fond of comparing growth rates when looking at liscense revenues for IDC, so why not compare growth rates for cdmaOne and GSM? Conversely, if you want to look at absolute size, why don't you compare QCOM's license revenue last quarter against IDC's revenues last quarter?
QCOM has not been able to convert 30M analog subscribers for two reasons
1. Its an ASIC manufacturer - not a network operator
2. The network operators haven't rolled out 100% CDMA coverage, but there again, neither have US TDMA or GSM operators. All CDMA 'phones have an analog mode of operation to allow roaming.
Notwithstanding its lawsuit with IDC for 2G TDMA/GSM,
Tell us more - any developments? Have you bought your June puts?
Note that IDC and Golden Bridge share a common link in Donald Schilling. His 50 or so broadband CDMA patents at IDC and his 9 or so patents at Golden Bridge, which has a licensing agreement with ATT (TDMA), are supported by a high-powered and pioneering intellectual paper trail in spread spectrum technology that dates back all the way to 1960. The conjecture is that Nokia is the vendor most
aggressively using elements of both complementary technologies to develop the TDD (time division duplex) version of spread spectrum that will span 3G and 4G. There are 8 REAL WORLD WCDMA trials going on to only 1 CDMA2000 trial (SKorea).
Patents - so what. Everyone has patents. They have no commercial value untilpooled and/or licensing agreements are made. Name drop Schilling - Name drop Jacobs and Viterbi.
And what the hell is this talk about 4G. When do you think that 3G will commercially roll out? I obviously need to remind you that GSM was trailing extensively in Europe in 1989. The commercial GSM network rollout didn't start in earnest until 1995. 3G will operate on an even longer time scale, because adequate digital networks now exist. |
