Re: OEI, PXD, and technical analysis
Still like OEI (up to about $14), and haven't sold a share in months (but have accumulated on weakness). I don't do technical analysis so can't comment on the chart. I simply look at total production, shares outstanding*share price, and debt for timing purchases of companies that have passed muster on their 10Q/K's. Have become a believer in some of the technical analysts here in the past year, as they have made some good calls.
PXD: I became heavily overweighted in PXD during the panic selling into the 6's last week. Lightened up yesterday to cover my massive fed calls from last Friday's buying binge. If I had spare cash, I would be looking at more liquid stocks. Don't think we are through the volatility until the actual results of the Vienna meeting are known.
Someone asked about OS stocks. I am so sure about EnP's that, except for some MDR, I am 100% invested in EnP's, mostly with heavy NG exposure, some oil exposure, and minimal hedges. Hedges are going to be the key to profits this quarter. My favorite EnP is XTO due to the total lack of NG hedges, the reasonable oil hedges on their sour crude, the selling of properties at these high prices to reduce debt, the stock buyback, and the Arkoma Basin prospects. IMHO XTO is going to kick tail this year. Would be interested in hearing the cons to owning XTO (other than current illiquidity).
Some folks here and on Yahoo are talking about Russia spoiling the party. I vehemently disagree. Last fall Russia STOPPED all exports for several weeks to ensure sufficient stocks to survive the winter. They are also cash starved, siphoning off nearly all profits from the industry. They have shafted a number of the oil service companies in the last few years (HAL comes to mind), so the OS companies distrust them. Also believe their production is on the decline. Bottom line is that they are probably very eager to "play ball" with OPEC. |
