Damned right there's an exit point for JDSU. Every time I read "Hold it forever", or "don't look at it for three years", I cringe. Woolworth was once a great stock. Would these people have ridden it all the way down?
I buy stocks that are on strong up-trend lines. I ride them up as long as the stay on the trendline. I sell when they break the trendline.
There are some really big advantages to investing this way. 1) It gets you in really good, growing stocks. 2) It gets you in as cheaply as possible, because you buy on the trendline, not way above it. 3) It gets you out, when the trend is over.
Take a look at this long-term chart of JDUS:
white-crane.com
You can see immediately why I'm in this stock. It's going up! It's really that simple. (Yes, I'm a momentum investor.) You can see the incredibly strong trend in JDSU from Oct 1998 through Oct 1999. At that point, it got even stronger, going up at a steeper rate.
Now, I want to stay invested in JDSU until it breaks that trendline Right now, that's at about $220.
However, that's a short-term trendline (since Oct 1999). Here's a closer look: white-crane.com Every investor needs to decide what their time horizon is. If you are a short-term trader you should sell as soon as JDSU breaks that short-term trendline. If you are a longer term trader, you should pay more attention to the 50-day moving average.
JDSU has not touched its 50-day moving average for almost a year. So I think I'd be willing to let it fall as far as 197 before selling. But I might buy protective puts when it crosses below the 26-day MA.
BTW: You a Marine, Jarhead? |
