If we take this International Herald Tribune report at face value, it would seem that there is more concern about China in Washington than there is in Taipeh.
iht.com
The Taipei stock market has not entirely shrugged off the threat. Since the ultimatum, the key index has fallen 5.7 percent, finishing Thursday at 9,599.17.
But the index is still up 13.6 percent for the year, and the island's OTC index of smaller shares, which has also lost a little ground since Monday, remains 27 percent above its level at the beginning of 2000.
Popular opinion in Taiwan appeared to be similarly unbowed.
A survey by the cable-TV station TVBS found 25 percent of respondents to be 'slightly worried' or 'very worried' about a military threat from Beijing, compared to 68 percent who were 'not very worried' or 'not at all worried.'
Day Sheng-tong, head of the Taiwan association of small and midsize businesses, dismissed fears over possible hostilities, saying Beijing's threat was mere political propaganda.
'Mainland China has too much to lose if a war breaks out,' he said. 'With the help of Taiwan investors, they can easily become a main global economic power in coming years. Why risk it?
'Commercial exchanges are so frequent that there is no hostility whatsoever,' said Mr. Day, owner of San Sun Hat & Cap Co.
The Taiwanese have danced this dance for years, and they know that Beijing always issues frantic and hostile words to cover up actual relaxations of tension. They also know that since last year Beijing has been quietly dealing with Taiwan on a de facto state-to-state basis, a change in policy that is far more significant than any statement of policy.
The PLA newspaper is often used as a conduit for military bluster. They have repeatedly announced that China could invade Taiwan at any time it chooses, though all credible military analysts agree that China does not have the amphibious or sealift capacity to launch or sustain such an operation.
The notion that China would fire nuclear missiles at the US mainland is absurd. They have by the most generous estimate 30 ICBMs. They would have no chance at all of eliminating our capacity for land-based retaliation, let alone our capacity for submarine-based response. They have no defense whatsoever against incoming missiles. They know very well that if they tried such a maneuver their entire military capacity and political leadership would be immediately annihilated. They are not stupid, and they are no more suicidal than anyone else.
The Washington Times people know all of these things, but acknowledging them would not suit their ideological preconceptions. |
