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Technology Stocks : IBM
IBM 306.44-1.9%Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Robert Scott Diver who wrote (6213)3/1/2000 9:59:00 AM
From: David W. Taylor  Read Replies (2) of 8218
 
To get to $60, I am assuming a P/E of around 15, which has been typical for the entire market including IBM until about 3 years ago. If you accept that P/E's of 25 are now warranted, you would get to 25 or today's number.

Remember that IBM is simply the largest generic provider of technology goods and services. With a P/E of 15, it would remain competitive to a fixed income investment in a "risk-free" world at around 6 percent. With a 25 P/E, equivalent to 4%, it is less attractive in that "risk-free" world.

Since we all know that there are risks in owning equities, logic says you should pay a less than fixed income prices, which are risk free in reality.

This is probably less than resonant for most people but it is essential to think this way for long-term survival.
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