Here is an interesting Gallup release:
gallup.com
POLL RELEASES
February 29, 2000
Little Change in National Election Picture Since New Hampshire
McCain still trails Bush by same margin as after New Hampshire Primary
by David W. Moore
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite his stunning double victories in Michigan and Arizona, John McCain continues to trail George W. Bush by a substantial margin among Republicans nationally, little changed since a poll conducted immediately after McCain's New Hampshire triumph on February 1st. According to the latest Gallup poll, conducted February 25-27, registered Republicans (including those who "lean" to the Republican Party) prefer Bush over McCain by 57% to 33%, essentially unchanged from a poll conducted February 4-6. At the end of January, the Texas Governor led McCain by 50 percentage points, 65% to 15%, double the current lead. But the latest poll suggests that the momentum McCain gained out of New Hampshire has not continued, after a loss in South Carolina, and followed by his victories in Michigan and Arizona.
Even while trailing Bush among Republicans nationally, McCain continues to fare much better than Bush against the Democratic front-runner, Al Gore. Among likely voters in the 2000 presidential election, Bush leads Gore by 9 points, 52% to 43%, while McCain leads Gore by 24 points, 59% to 35%. This pattern is essentially unchanged since it was first measured in the February 4-6 poll, after the New Hampshire primary. Prior to that time, McCain and Bush fared equally well against Gore in the national election contest.
McCain Enjoys Widespread Popularity Across the Political Spectrum
McCain's strength in the general election contest is related to his popularity among Republicans, independents and Democrats, all of whom feel favorably toward the Arizona Senator by substantial margins: 74% among Republicans, 67% among independents, and 63% among Democrats. Among Republicans, Bush is viewed more favorably (85%) than McCain, but is viewed considerably less favorably among independents (50%) and Democrats (34%).
Voters Prefer "Open" Primaries
It is this widespread support among non-Republicans that has led to criticisms by Bush supporters that McCain is "hijacking" the Republican Party by drawing most of his support in Republican primaries from Democrats and independents. This is possible because the "open" primaries in South Carolina and Michigan allow voters to participate even if they do not affiliate with the Republican Party. But the poll shows that voters across the country, even a majority of Republicans, support such open primaries over a more restricted system, which allows only party identifiers to vote.
Respondents were asked which they prefer: open primaries, where any registered voter can participate in the Republican or Democratic Party primary elections, or closed primaries, where only members of each party can participate in that party's primary election. The poll shows that by a margin of 71% to 26%, registered voters chose the open primaries. Among solid Republicans, the margin is 58% to 39% in favor, compared with 78% to 21% among "lean" Republicans, and comparably high margins among independents and Democrats.
The advantage to McCain of the open primaries has been demonstrated in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Michigan -- where McCain beat Bush handily among independents, while generally doing much worse among party regulars. Even in this poll, McCain beats Bush nationally among Republican leaning independents by 54% to 41%, but this margin is more than offset by Bush's advantage among regular Republicans, who choose the Texas Governor by 62% to 27%.
Survey Methods
1,004 adults and 874 registered voters. For results based on registered voters, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. |
