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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 689.17

+0.2%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (41902)	3/1/2000 8:20:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Gersh, OEX call OI rose by about 1,400 contracts today. the only positive i could glean was the fact that put OI is once again slightly higher than call OI on the OEX, but the ratio of put to call OI is still WAY below normal. in fact the only index that still has a healthy OI p/c ratio is the NDX, but it has begun to deteriorate a bit, along with the NDX p/c volume ratio. total index p/c ratios were slightly less lopsided today than during the past five sessions, but the individual equity p/c ratio came in at a rare extreme of 0,31. the Rydex ratios have once again produced record lows. the 'smart money index' for the NYSE keeps on deteriorating. the same index for the NDX has begun to diverge from the index (albeit only slightly). one more thing: the overall volume and OI in index options is extremely low. the ratio of index put dollar volume to stock trading volume is scraping along record lows...the same goes for the ratio of mutual fund assets to index put volume. it appears that fund managers have more or less given up on hedging, trusting in the "Greenspan put" instead. the real action is in individual equity calls...we regularly trade record volumes of those, almost one million contracts again today. interestingly the sentiment polls are showing relatively low bullish consensus readings among futures trading advisors, which is usually a short term positive. but that's just talk...the problem with the polls is that opinions often change in a heartbeat. the bullish consensus as per the positioning measures has never been as uniform as it is now. regards, hb

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