There are many business-oriented Chinese, many of them in positions of considerable power, who badly want to establish civilized and profitable relations with the rest of the world. There are others, many of them connected to the communist old guard and the PLA, who are terrified of where those relations could lead. The old guard control the army and the propaganda apparatus; the younger, more business-oriented factions control the money-making apparatus. (For obvious reasons, this is much simplified). Over the past few years, with increases in trade and general street-level liberalization, the balance of power has shifted to a considerable degree toward the internationalists. This is expected to continue, as the old guard, many of whom are well into their 80s, dies off.
The point is that excluding China from the WTO and the system of trade in general plays into the hands of the old-guard conservatives, who want an insular, isolated China. Opening up strengthens the hand of the progressives. It is not a matter of punishing or rewarding "China" as a monolithic entity, but of encouraging and increasing the influence of the reform-minded factions within the Chinese power structure.
The more influential Chinese are getting rich from trade, the less support there will be for military solutions to any problem. It's a time for pragmatism, not moralizing. |
