Danny,
OT - SCMR, JNPR, WEBM etc.
I have not followed WEBM, but in trying to pick the next CSCO, I came up with 3 names: SCMR, RBAK, and JNPR, in that order. Back in Dec/Jan I was waiting for an appropriate entry point, based on rational analysis. Of course the entry points never came. Last week SCMR was flat for a few days @110 after their split. I finally closed my eyes and pulled the trigger. SCMR closed today at 169. RBAK and JNPR have done like-wise. It is absolutely crazy.
This is purely betting on promises and what their technology and management can deliver 2-3 years down the road. There will be new companies in 5 years with market caps of hundreds of billions of dollars.
I compare the buildout of the Internet infrastructure to the buildout of our road infrastructure in the 50s and 60s. The next 5 years will see a huge buildout of the Information superhighway equivalent of the Interstates, the State highways, the beltways and ring-roads, and all the major through roads.
RKH has forecasted the DWDM market alone to grow from 2.5B this year to 15.3B in 2003, and I think this is ultra conservative. We ain't seen nothing yet.
LU, CSCO, NT are all gorillas in this endeavor, but there will be new major players as well. I just want to make sure I have a stake in a couple of the up and coming ones.
Regards,
Steve |
