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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory
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To: John Pitera who wrote (278)3/2/2000 6:55:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™  Read Replies (4) of 33421
 
I had a recent PM conversation with another poster who asked about the prospects of crude oil... I thought I might copy a segment of my reply and post it here:

A longer term view of oil:

I think the oil issue is three pronged, or has three phases: 1) oil field discovery, 2) oil production, and 3) oil consumption... Oil field discovery went through a phase of rapid growth since the boom in the early 60's, but has since been on the decline... when oil field discovery peaked, oil production was on the rise... there are no longer significant oil field discoveries and production has since peaked and is now on the decline as well... the problem here is that global oil consumption is still on the rise and accelerating... this presents the problem of less production and/or higher production costs due to less oil discovery.. meanwhile, demand is still on the rise and not scheduled to peak until around 2010... I'm not trying to sound like an alarmist, but based on some recent studies, it has been shown that by 2010 we may have a serious oil crisis that could impede industrial production due to cost... so, long term, I think crude oil is going to get ugly... I mentioned the CRB Index and not oil specifically, since the Index also includes the agricultural markets as well as the metals, not only gold but copper used in home production... the increased use of copper is reflected in the housing start numbers that get released by the govt... all these markets have turned up in recent months... I would buy the CRB Index and just keep it in the draw like a stock.....<g>

GZ
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