Fred, my bloomers are on...
EMC's historical movements are not really so relevant......the future is (what is important).....look at Dell last year....after a wonderful stock history..until Feb. '99....it has been lame....such can happen to any stock, at any time...
Again, today, EMC is lame....to the market, it appears there is absolutely no reason to buy more EMC right now....we need some good news to catapult the stock and get us out of neutral.....Ruettgers is usually pretty good at such timely announcements...
Yes, I do get a little concerned when a stock I own in under performing an index by 1/2....and its competitors stock prices are rising 6x, 8x or more times (than EMC)...
The Gorilla strategy that worked so well in 1997, 1998, 1999 is looking like a still profitable, but not the best strategy for 2000 (at least so far)....picking the "baby gorillas) seems to be the way to go....companies growing at 50, 70,90%....something EMC will not be doing...will this trend continue?
At some point, the gap between the Dow and the Naz is going to narrow some.....I believe the Naz will need to undergo a correction at some point....I don't like the prospect of EMC having to "make up ground" under such a scenario....
Of course, I am still long EMC, and expect to stay that way...but I think it is relevant to ask the question: Is there a (potential) problem here? Has the nature of the market (that served EMC so well in previous years) changed? I am not disputing that EMC is doing well, and will grow (revenues, earnings) nicely going forward...but is that enough to sustain super-stock price growth?
Don't know about you, but I don't like to rely on EMC being UP in down/flat markets.....in order to outperform indices (going forward)...and justify me holding the stock......I like to see EMC lead (be up more on up days)..and be down less (than indices) on down days...as we frequently saw in past years....
I would not care if NTAP, JDSU, BEAS, etc. were only appreciating 2x EMC....that would not be enough of a premium for me (to want to hold those names).... but these (and others) are outperforming EMC 6x, 8x, 10x or more in only a few months....that is too big gap, IMO, to dismiss out-of-hand... |
