I don't want to get into an argument about TA. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.
Sometimes support holds and sometimes it doesn't.
Ok, I see where you are coming from. A common interpretation. If I might speculate here, you seem to believe that technical analysis is about "prediction". I do not believe this. All we can do as analysts is look for the likely scenarios that the crowd, and other traders, will be looking at, and use TA to give us an edge for our entry and exit.
If we can spot support and resistance levels that price may dance around, it may look like prediction, but what it is really is the definition of how the market is likely to react to a break or successful test of these levels.
It looks more like failure if you only contemplate one direction. I.e., if you only think long, when price moves in your favour, then you are "right". If price doesn't do what you thought it would do in a long scenario, then you are "wrong".
The well rounded TA / trader will look for both scenarios and drop his/her bias, and trade what's in front of them.
Repeat after me, TA is not prediction. TA is not prediction... its about measurement. Therefore TA is not "wrong" or "right", its about what you do with the measurements.
I see I'm missing a potential trade here while I type...
Have a good day,
Michael |
