Objective is to outperform Naz index...(at a minimum)....Of course I don't expect EMC every two months, but I do question whether or not the nature of this Naz market may have changed....that it is and will be much more momentum driven, and, until we get that invariable correction (that will bring down all stocks)......that gorillas aren't the leaders (anymore) like in previous years......that they will produce good returns...but, in some cases, may even trail the market.....and that the really superior returns may be holding other, smaller, faster-growing companies...
Unquestionably, in 1997, 1998, 1999...holding Cisco, EMC Dell, Microsoft, Intel, AOL and the like was a great, relatively safe gorilla strategy which produced phenomenal x times market beating returns ....
Since beginning of the year, EMC has underperformed....some of the others on the list as well........that is certain...whether it is a temporary spell, or if it signifies something bigger..only time will tell....I continue to be very long.
If EMC appreciates at 30% this year, but the Naz is up 50%...and many well-know, in-the-news tech names are up much more than 50%...then, no, I will not consider my decision to hold EMC long (this year) a big success....for me to hold an individual stock, it must outperform the Naz (or Naz 100) or I am better off holding QQQ....
BTW- These conversations are similiar to what occurred on the Dell thread in summer '99.... |
