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Technology Stocks : Comverse Technology

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To: Mark Ambrose who wrote (1038)3/2/2000 7:58:00 PM
From: Mark Ambrose  Read Replies (1) of 1331
 
FWIW, I happened upon this website and typed-in CMVT.

Of the 9 "gurus" whose analytical methodology have been
"programmed-in," none rated it 'Strong Interest' and only 1
rated it 'Some Interest.' The conclusion of the other 8 was
'No Interest' -- Note, they add that it doesn't mean SELL.

I'll bet that CMVT's rating would be better if they had
used *correct* data in their "earnings consistency" category
(they rated it FAIL), HA.

Here is the URL:
reesegroup.com
------------------------------------------------------------

Analysis of CMVT based on Reesegroup.com's selection and interpretation of the investment criteria published by William O'Neil (Author of How to Make Money in Stocks and Founder of Investors Business Daily)

Conclusion: Some Interest in CMVT at this time

Look at the quarterly EPS change (This quarter vs. same quarter last year) (PASS) : The EPS growth for this quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier for CMVT, 38.6%, is above the minimum 18% that this methodology likes to see for a "good" growth company. Furthermore, growth from Q5 to Q1 beat estimates, for this year and next, by more than 25%.This would be consider extremely upbeat, hence CMVT would pass the first requirement.

Look at annual earnings growth (PASS) : This methodology looks for annual earnings growth above 18%, but prefers higher than 25%. CMVT's annual earnings growth rate over the past five years of 35.30% passes this test.

Look at the earnings consistency (FAIL) : According to this methodology, each year's EPS numbers should be better than the previous. One dip is allowed, but the following year's earnings should be a new high. CMVT, whose annual EPS before extraordinary items for the last 5 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) were 0.54, 0.74, 0.54, -1.77, 1.68, would not pass this criteria, as more than 1 dip is unacceptable to the methodology.

Look at the current price level (PASS) : Investors should keep an eye open for stocks making new 52-week highs, as the stock price is potentially close to breaking out to a new high on above average volume, which according to this methodology is the optimum time to buy. CMVT's current stock price has broke into a new high. This a great sign.

Look at the 4 month S&P relative strength line (PASS) : This methodology likes to see confirmation from this indicator when buying as a sign of a company's recently strong momentum. It shows a company's weekly performance in comparison to the overall market, as measured by the S&P 500. Look for a general upward trend in weekly relative strength, as the best stocks usually act better than the overall market. CMVT's relative strength trend has been increasing over the last 4 months. This type of price action is favorable.

Look at the price performance compared to all other stocks (PASS) : A company's weighted relative strength, which is the stock's price performance compared with the overall market over the past year, should be no less than 80, although above 90 is preferred. As long as all the other numbers are in check, these companies should continue to perform well over the next 3 months. CMVT's relative strength of 84 is at an acceptable level, and therefore would pass this test.

Look for confirmation of at least one other leading stock in the industry (PASS) : Make sure that a company's industry is attractive by confirming that at least one other company in the industry has a relative strength above 80. There is confirmation in CMVT's industry (Communications Equipment), as there are 122 companies that have a relative strength at or above 80.

Look for leading industries (PASS) : Buy stocks in top performing industries. Look at the number of companies within an industry that have a weighted relative strength above 80, and choose only the top 30% of those industries from which to select stocks. In another method, look for industries with the most stocks making new 52-week highs. CMVT's industry (Communications Equipment) is currently one of the top performing industries, as it passes both of the aforementioned criteria.

Look to see if Long-term Debt/Equity has been decreasing (FAIL) : Companies who have consistently cut debt over the last 3 years, or who have no debt, are looked at favorably. CMVT, whose Debt/Equity for the last 3 years (from earliest to the most recent fiscal year) was 44.0%, 49.7%, 108.7%, would fail this test.

Look at Return on Equity (PASS) : preferred companies must have a ROE of at least 17%. CMVT's ROE of 33.6% is above the minimum 17% that this methodology likes to see, and therefore would pass the criteria.

Look at the shares outstanding (NEUTRAL) : Shares outstanding should be less than 30 million, as fewer shares mean bigger price jumps when demand surges. However, large companies are as acceptable if all the other numbers check out. CMVT currently has 76 million shares outstanding. This is less favorable, but is still acceptable.

Look at the insider ownership (PASS) : Companies with the best prospects have strong insider ownership, which we define as 15% or more. When there is strong insider ownership, management is more likely to act in the best interest of the company, as their interests are right in line with that of the shareholders. Insiders own 43.0% of CMVT's stock. Management's representation is large enough and would pass this test.

Look for something new and/or of major significance in the business: When investing in a company, this methodology looks for some new excitement taking place in the business. Look for the release of major new products or services, which are currently adding to revenues, the implementation of fresh top-level managment, or significant favorable changes in industry conditions. Unfortunately, we are unable to come to a conclusion on this variable, but check out the REESE REPORT for the latest developments on CMVT.

Look at the institutional ownership (PASS) : Some institutional ownership is preferred, but there is no indication that a large number of institutions is too many. Institutions own 82.9% of CMVT's stock. Because there is some institutional ownership present, CMVT would pass this test.

Conclusion: Some interest in CMVT at this time
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