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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals
ARIA 23.990.0%Feb 17 3:00 PM EDT
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To: Bipin Prasad who wrote (1053)3/2/2000 10:04:00 PM
From: scott_jiminez   of 4474
 
<<ARIAD...at $200 appears correct...>>

Superficially that appears to be an absurd statement.

But then you look at the years of no institutional interest, zero venture capital inflow, zip valuation given to platforms and/or bench science...and you come to the unmistakable conclusion that ARIA probably should have been trading in the $10 - 20 range at the beginning of the biotech rally if all of these negatives weren't pummeling the stock until last fall.

But with the additional factors of the god awful convertible, and the diffuse research direction, etc., the stock price was just pounded to nothing.

Thus this huge run is distorted by the fact that last fall the stock had valued the company as essentially worthless. While we may or may not see $200, do not be surprised if ARIA goes substantially higher. Remember (as noted by Berger) Ariad's valuation is JUST BEGINNING to reach the LOWER REALM of its similarly positioned peers.
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