This board is quickly turning into the 'whinning board'. People seem to want to analyze daily and hourly
movement of Q. A good press announcement means we should add $25B to our market cap and every
BS press announcement that taunts a new standard or major breakthrew, throws people into a fit of
doubt and dispair. Here are some facts:
1. China is full speed ahead. I don't care what you read, a fact is a fact and no press announcement
from China or QCOM indicates anything different.
2. How many posts must I write explaining the difference between a press announcement and an
implementation of technolgy? See if you can find earlier posts of mine where I raise the DSPC, LSI
and PraireCom press announcements and ask where the product is. DSPC had their first CDMA chip
announcement about two years ago. Where is the volume production? LSI announced that they would
be going into production about 6 months ago. Still no phones, still no chips. PraireCom appeared to be
unable to make a CDMA chip so the recently announced their 3G chip (that makes sense). Where is
Samsung's chip? And then there was MOT...... Review Motorola's press announcements last year and
a half about CDMA chips and world chips and new technologies. Where are the chips? Why are they
still buying from QCOM? IMO, these guys may not have their CDMAOne chips out until after Q is
shipping high volume 1XRTT. That means they are only 2-3 years behind. Fact of the matter is that it
takes years to develop a CDMA ASIC and seeing that Q is the expert in CDMA and the only company
with a legitimate product, I can't see why people take these announcements seriously. Making a
CDMA chip is not as simple as burning a DSP, MCU and making it interface witha any old RF
component. And by the way, once you have a chips working, it takes 6 months to integrate it into a
phone and another 3-6 months to go through carrier testing. These are not simple chips people. Look at
all the huge companies that licensed this technology and could not get a chip working. So all the large
Japanese, American and European (Philips, Siemens) companies couldn't get a chip to work and you all
are worried that China has made a breakthrough? It is just too humerous to think that some of you
worry about such things. The fact of the matter is that all the press and publicity that CDMA is getting
is a good thing. That's right, everyone recognizes its' importance, yet only one company can deliver.
3. Q doesn't move with the market. It is so powerful that it has a mind of its own. I am sorry if you are
down on your Q investment. After all two months is such a long time in the investment world. I suggest
that if you own Q and don't understand why it is priced the way it is, then you should sell. Go buy one
of those guaranteed investments. Fact is that Q could trade between 110 and 170 for the next 5 months,
but count this as a FACT. Q will be near tripled where it sits today by 12/30. And it will double or
tripple every year for the next five years. It will do so on fundamentals, not momentum and press
releases.
If you understand the fundamentals then you understand the opportunity before you.
Q1 and half of Q2 is slow for wireless in general when compared to Q3 and Q4. Look at last years
earnings and you will understand the seasonality of this business.
In short, you can whine every day or you can buy and smile. I could care less except for the added
screening that I must do when reading this board. You can guess what I am doing and I'll be laughing
again this winter. Just like I was in December after a year of repeating what I just wrote.
Good luck and remember that you can never predict when the earthquake will happen, but you are sure
that one and many others will come. Take advantage of the stupidity of others; don't contribute to it.
- Janitor @ Another Q Thread |
