Paul,
I had posted a message to you computing Intel's revenues, but for some reason it does not show up on the main board. Let me show you again how this works and how wrong you really are:
For fiscal year 1995, Intel's revenues grew by 47% to $16,202,000,000. You are correct in stating that Intel should reach revenues of $20 Billion for this 1996 fiscal year. Now let's assume that Intel's revenues grow a mere 35% there (which they have averaged much higher in the past). This would mean that this year $20 Billion in revenues will gow to $28 Billion for fiscal year 1997. That in turn would grow to $39 Billion for fiscal year 1998. That in turn would then grow to $55 Billion for fiscal year 1999.
If we use the math that you gave us, then Intel would have an impossible task, i'll agree. To reach $50 Billion in revenues by year 2000 would only require 35% year over year growth. I believe you stated 300% (or 100% per year). Using those numbers, Intel would have revenues of $160 Billion by year 2000 (again, i agree thisis impossible).
Let me now tell you that i was wrong when i stated the report as saying $60 Billion in revenues by fiscal year 1999. The report actually read $50 Billion. This is still nothing to sneeze at and very much possible as i have explained above. Your problem is that you let the percentages decive you!!! (are you sure you didn't have something to do with the Pentium flaw in a previous life??)
If you think that it is impossible for a large cap company to grow its revenues by 35% per year as i have used in the example above, don't. It is not as rare as you might believe. And it is even less rare for any size technology company (never mind the world's leader Intel). Let me give you a few random examples of revenue increases last year:
1. General Electric grew it's revenues by 17% last year to $70 Billion
2. Exxon grew it's revenues by 8% last year to $109 Billion
3. Microsoft grew it's revenues by 41% last year to $7.5 Billion
4. Hewlett-Packard grew it's revenues by 26% last year to $33.5 Billion
5. American Home Products grew it's revenues by 49% last year to $14 Billion
I could go on & on. Intel sells one of the most sought after products worldwide as we enter the 21st century. If you or anyone believes that Intel, the technology leader, cannot grow it's revenues by at least 35% year over year as we enter the next century, i think you will see that you are wrong. Maybe your post just proves how poor math skills are in this country more than anything else. |
