Allen,
TEXP - can't disagree with your or unocals choice. If your base is at 4 you're going to have a fun year! As for adding to TEXP, one approach is to choose valuations at which you are comfortable taking profits, and likewise, valuations which are unusualy low. For example, if Pure trades at >7-8x cash flow in August, beware of correction in fall and then a setup for tax loss selling in Nov-Dec. That might bring it back to todays (well, a week ago!) anomalous valuations. Significant tax loss selling is more likely if the bulk of the volume in the Spring run-up is at prices above the corrected prices in late summer.
It's interesting that you state that "financials look only adequate at best". If you compared TEXP financial to others in its peers, you would find a similar story; Debt, limited access to capital, but rapidly rising cash flows and earnings. In other words, a cyclic in the initial leg of a turnaround. By the time a cyclic appears on typical stock screen, the share price is well on its ways to its 52 wk. highs.
Enough with the energy,
got Silver? |
