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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: marc ultra who wrote (12171)	3/4/2000 1:30:00 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (4) of 15132

I don't know about you guys but this week reminded me clearly about Bob's discussion of what happened in 1929 in one aspect. He said a lot of smart people saw the excesses going on and got out of the market in time to avoid the crash. Then when there was a big suckers rally which made back about 50% of the drop many of these previously smart people jumped back in and thinking the worst was over and the bull was back. They all got killed as the market then proceeded into the depths of hell. Everybody complaining about the sell signal seems to be singing the same song, namely my hot tech stock took off after I sold. I have stocks that have doubled, tripled and quadrupled since the sell but by shorting the S&P I was able to hold a few I like like ARBA and a couple of biotechs. It was clear the model is based most closely to the S&P500. More importantly money is coming out of the market and whatever is going in as well as what is being shifted from the rest of the market is being squeezed into a smaller and smaller group of tech stocks. I would not make any final judgements until we see if the S&P falls 20% and then see what happens in the NASDAQ. I suspect it will be extremely ugly. There was a technician on CNBC today who was showing Investors Intelligence sentiment versus the market(Idon't recall which average he used) and showed how consistently you had a fall in sentiment with a short term drop and a rise with a short term rally. Big deal, obvious you say but the point was at this moment it looks completely different from anything seen before. The sentiment is just stuck there at highly bullish in the 60's and really doesn't respond much to market scares. I think Bob will be proven right and a nasty bear market has started. We just may be seeing one of many sucker rallies to come. The NASDAQ will crack severely if this is the case and I just hope my biotech I have a huge position in will have enougth good news to go against the trend Marc

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