Hello gemsearcher & Russett,
I just got a chance to listen to the conference call, and, well, I was underwhelmed.
While I'd agree that SUF has some tremendous upside based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, all the analysts will point to things like the declining cash flow for the next while, and perhaps to the slow start-up at Messina as reasons for not being overtly bullish.
I'd agree with the one questioner that somebody may be lurking to try to push a stink bid past frustrated shareholders in the next while. While I'd be happy to see $5 from $2.50 now, I'd be annoyed that I couldn't participate on the huge upside offered by simply selling off parts of the company. Just imagine what a smart investor could do by buying SUF for 4-5 bucks a share (100-130 million) and finding a buyer for Cama-f*%&up for north of $50 million. Pawn off a few other things and keep Messina for free.
I think that a big reason for the lack of market enthusiasm, even desperation selling, after the conference comes from the same problem SUF has had for ages -- it moves too slowly on all fronts. Here are some examples:
1) Messina was brought to SUF about 3 years ago. Imagine trying to take out the minority shareholders a year ago. Would've be like taking candy from a baby. Now, well thanks to SUFs monolithic speed, not a chance.
2) Messina was announced last April with a 120 day window. It has been completed, but almost 10 months later, or about 6 months late on a 4 month period. Good that they got it done, but Chrysler got taken over in a quarter of that time.
3) At the AGM, we were told by senior staff, that Cama-f*%&-up would be at pre-feasibility by end of Aug. Its now March, still not done, and by my watch, thats 6 months late on a 60 day period.
4) Last January, we were told that Klipspringer would be mining at 20,000 tpm by July. Then it got moved to December, then March. Now its in pre-feasibility? Come on. The market read is: comatose asset.
5) On the conference call, project financing was said to be 2 to 6 months away. Dr. Jennings told me last summer that non-recourse financing was in the bag. SUF has 54% of Messina. Why is the project financing not done? Is the project viability going to change? This is garbage to long waiting shareholders.
6) SUF has not had any positive discoveries to show for any of its many holdings. Klipspringer was brought to SUF by a consultant. Ditto Marsfontein. Ditto Cama-f*&%up. Ditto Australia, Brazil, etc. SUF has managed to cobble together an impressive portfolio of exploration properties, but other than finding M1, not a single exciting find has been made. What is the likelihood going forward? Less and less, in my opinion. They don't even know when they can START to explore in Brazil, part of their porfolio for the better part of a year now. What are all these guys doing?
And finally, as one caller pointed out, many analysts have turned very sour on SUF and Dr. Jennings over the past year. So the dithering board got off its elephant-sized you-know and brought in a quality new man. Good. Then Dr. Jennings does most of the talking. I can't believe how out of touch with the investment community he seems to be. No analysts want to hear from him. They're still waiting for all the other thngs above that he's promised. So, it seems to me that either he can't contain his ego, or the new guy is not up to speed, or he's a yes man for Dr. Jennings. It is my fondest hope that the new Pres had a sit down with Dr. Jennings right after the meeting and set him straight on who the new face of SUF was. If not, yikes.
SUF is still worth +$5.00 in the short term, and lots more with developments, but these guys really have to speed things up or somebody is gonna try to steal our assets.
All that and I bought more at $2. I must be insane.
Best Luck,
Confluence
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