TA on US stocks, bonds, commodities
first a gloat on my NazComp call a few weeks ago:
did anyone think I was crazy in midFeb when I predicted a NazComp move to 5000?
only that utter bonafide bumwad The Molloso Apso (aka Molloy) who labeled me a Galvinite... if true to form he will say Naz hasnt gotten there yet, only got to 4900... what a slackjaw limpwrist buttdragging mental rollypolly
- S&P might be on the verge of breaking out of the recent downchannel established since early January... recall on Friday that for the first time in several weeks, both the S&P and NazComp moved up together... the S&P futures enjoyed a bullish stochastic crossover last week with nice followthru... anther positive day would seal the breakout above the upper boundary of this ugly downchannel
- TBond on 30yr and TNote on 10yr are both doing nicely, recovering from recent Greenspanitosis... no evidence of inflation anywhere except oil and energy... but I believe the higher cost of energy represents a effective drag on our economy
- the Japanese Yen woke up last week, shaking its funk... this coincided with the Nikkei making new highs over 20,000... despite an economy that is having trouble getting out of its own way, beset by crippling debt, weighed down by its citizenry's reluctance to spend (because the war in 1944 might come back)
- the Euro currency is establishing a bottom, scraping a tad lower in the last week... not enough lower to cause problems... but seems to be making the low here clear
- as result of the international currency triangle, the USdollar is attempting to stabilize at a high level... we need stability, not appreciation... giving back somewhat would be healthy, a condition which would assist exports, US corporations, and our economy
- strangely, gold and silver have fallen about as much as oil has risen... oil is now as high as during the Gulf War in 1990... copper is widely considered the Economic Gold, and it fell more sharply than the speculative gold/silver pair... the recent housing news about a slower growth, or even pace, has probably caused this copper decline... its futures contract fell 10% in one week, very big move
so inflation is subdued outside the energy sector
bonds realize this and respond with lower rates
most important observation in my little head is that the S&P stock index is reversing out of its funkyass downtrend downchannel badboy neighborhood.. this is confirmed by NazComp coincident rise
winter be over, fellow jackass wannabees... now got S&P, NazComp, and bonds all rising together... when could you last say that?.. sometime around November
looking for a slight S&P easing in next couple days, but only small one, then resumption of coordinated moves upward
/ Jim Willie |
