Guess I'll only get 1/2 of a 1/2, b/c the mania will end "badly."<g> Fortunately it will not be prolonged in all sectors and I'll share why I think so. Sorry, I can't tell you the when, and don't know anyone that can.
Earlier last month, I was re-viewing portions of Naisbitts, Megatrends, (1984 printing) and ran across an interesting conclusion he spelled out. It speaks directly to these "new economy stocks." May I share it with you?
He says and I quote:
The new source of power is not money in the hands of a few but information in the hands of many.
"Unlike other forces in the universe, however, knowledge is NOT subject to the law of conservation: It CAN be created, it CAN be destroyed, and most importantly it IS synergetic--that is, the whole is usually greater than the sum of the parts. Notes Peter Drucker, 'The productivity of knowledge has already become the key to productivity, competitive strength, and economic achievement. Knowledge has already become THE primary industry, the industry that supplies the economy the essential and central resources of production.'
"We need to create a knowledge theory of value to replace Marx's obsolete labor theory of value.
"In an information economy, then, value is increased not by labor, but by knowledge. Marx's "labor theory of value," born at the beginning of the industiral economy, must be replaced with a new knowledge theory of value....
"Nevertheless, the notion that knowledge can create economic value is generally absent from most economic analysis, though there is some evidence that it is now beginning to be taken into account." END QUOTE
And herein is where the crux of the difficulty lies: trying to tell what is a "mania market" and what is genuinely a new "knowledge theory of value" economy market.
Frankly, I find PCCLF (modeled on CMGI) and the ICGE models so very compelling for one reason: they are vehicles for furthering access to knowledge. And not just any ol'access, but IMMEDIATE access, i.e., access upon demand, driven by individual initiative, being THEEE most powerful motivator of seeking for acquiring knowledge ever observed.
This is one of the reasons why I personally believe PCCLF will go far; the simple reason that they are focused like a laser beam upon a target population who has had almost every kind of knowledge doled out, restricted or otherwise impedimentarily obscured. And all these repressive restrictions have been for one reason: control of the many for the benefit of the few.
In no other paradigm shift including the shift from agrarian to industrial theory of value, has there been such an excellent blueprint laid out than the "6 Steps" by Bob Joy laid out on another thread. One only needs to decide where among those 6 steps to place one's "bets," if they wish to make healthy sums of money.
Furthermore, anywhere along the 6 steps continuum will be fine as they will all make money. It only matters that one is a patient, astute and selective investor.
Some continuum entry points will offer more leverage, some will trade leverage for risk, even some will trade sleep for adrenalin rush. But all can make a legitimate "buck" by stepping up to this new economy/knowledge theory of value and let the "mania" wax and wane.
When the mania "breaks," frankly, it will just offer what all other breakdowns in manias produce: cheaper shares of the good stocks that get thrown out with the bathwater of the old industrial economy.
And isn't it fitting that Li's going to use the "sports and entertainment" window to beam the insular barrier breaking PCCLF laser into?
Only if Li becomes afraid of knowledge and thus tries to access to knowledge should PCCLF, CMGI, ICGE "bettors" become nervous.
Comments anyone (except from the hysterical women on the thread<g>)? |
