CHINA WAR PLAN AGAINST TAIWAN AND U.S.
3/3/00 - By J. Michael Waller
insightmag.com
The People?s Republic of China is actively planning a
military invasion of Taiwan and is preparing to wage war
against the United States ? including firing its small
arsenal of strategic nuclear missiles on the territory of the
United States ? if Washington attempts to defend the
island. In an internal document from the Chinese
Communist Party?s Central Military Commission to all its
regional commanders, Beijing says it hopes to absorb
Taiwan through nonviolent means but warns of an
?increased possibility for a military solution,? arguing: ?It
is better to fight now than [in the] future ? the earlier,
the better.?
In the document, (see "China Prepares for War") Beijing
envisions a blitzkrieg-like attack on Taiwan, launching a
?first fatal strike? so that ?the Taiwan forces have no way
to organize effective resistance.? Under this plan, ?we will
be able to control Taiwan before the U.S. intervention
and then concentrate our forces to fight the U.S.?
The paper, distributed to commanders in August 1999,
urges military leaders to ?be well prepared for war? with
Taiwan and, if necessary, the United States, following
Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui?s ?two-country theory,?
in which the Republic of China on Taiwan would seek
independent statehood. The Communist Chinese
leadership views Lee?s position as a threat to the territorial
integrity of the People?s Republic and argues that if
allowed to stand would promote mainland China?s
disintegration by encouraging independence for Tibet and
other occupied areas. The paper says that large-scale
coastal and inland military exercises planned for Sept.
1999 were intended not only to intimidate Taiwan but ?to
adapt our armed forces to cross-the-Straits operations.?
Beijing anticipates the passive support of Russia in a
Taiwan invasion. A summit between Chinese President
Jiang Zemin, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and others
in Kazakhstan that same month was intended on Beijing?s
part to help reduce ?the traditional pressure along our
northeast and northwest borders, and increase the
proportion of forces which can be moved to the southeast
coastal regions,? as well as to keep open ?land routes
during the war ? in case we are forced to fight a
full-scale war against the U.S.?
Insight has obtained a copy of this startling document,
which has been translated into English. (Click here to read
the full document.) The purpose of the document is to
make ?high-ranking commanders in non-combat as well
as combat positions ? well aware of the following issues
so as to better understand the strategic decisions made by
the Party?s Central Committee and be well-prepared for
the war in their units based on the rapidly-changing
relationships with Taiwan.?
The document tells commanders to understand the
party?s thinking behind its preparations and ?a wave of
politically-oriented military exercises? intended ?to raise
the political consciousness of all commanders and soldiers
up to a level required by war.?
Peaceful reunification with Taiwan, according to the
Central Military Commission paper, ?is still the best
option? for Beijing?s long-term interests, as military
options would be disruptive of the Party?s economic
development goals. The document says it is very unlikely
that European countries would aid in Taiwan?s defense,
but anticipates that the U.S. would attempt to defend
against an attack. Therefore, prior to an invasion of
Taiwan, ?we must take into account the above
[diplomatic] factors and use diplomatic leverage to
minimize international resistance.?
Beijing?s crackdown on the Falun Gong spiritual group,
the document says, was aimed at crushing separatist
sentiment. ?To outlaw ?Falun Gong? was a preemptive
measure aimed at the ultimate resolution of [the] Taiwan
issue,? according to the document, ?not only eliminating
domestic trouble, but paving the way for reunification as
well.? The Party leaders seem pleased with the weakness
of international protests: ?Negative international reaction
has proven to be limited, and the protest from the U.S.
was particularly pale and powerless, fully demonstrating
that our Party has the ability and courage to gain
advantage in complicated domestic and international
struggles.?
Senior Chinese military officials, the document says,
disclosed ?some information on strategic weaponry so
that the U.S. will exercise some caution in
decision-making and be aware that it would have to pay a
price if it decided to intervene in a military conflict. The
purpose is to prevent the U.S. from being deeply involved
even if a war becomes unavoidable so that the losses on
both sides of the Taiwan straits will be minimized
throughout the war. The main point is deterrence, which
is the test for a peaceful solution. The test is within the
strategic scope of taking initiative and promoting good
timing.?
Beijing is convinced that, even in its much weaker
military state, it can prevail in a war against the United
States. ?Taking into account of possible intervention by
the U.S. and based on the development strategy of our
country, it is better to fight now than [in the] future ? the
earlier, the better,? the military document says. ?The
reason being that, if worst comes to worst, we will gain
control of Taiwan before full deployment of U.S. troops.
In this case, the only thing the U.S. can do is fighting a
war with the purpose of retaliation, which will be similar
to the Gulf War against Iraq or the recent bombing of
Yugoslavia as far as its operational objective is
considered.? If the above scenario cannot be avoided, an
early war will delay the success of our reform whereas a
later war will jeopardize the full achievement of the
reform.?
The document says China has experience in ?fighting the
U.S. forces under modern warfare conditions. In that
war, the Chinese forces were mainly responsible for air
defense [of North Vietnam] and accumulated a whole set
of experience in this regard.?
Beijing anticipates that the United States will not be able
to maintain its forces in combat against China for an
extended period. The document reasons that the conflict
will not escalate into a nuclear missile exchange, because
the U.S. will lose its will to fight and withdraw after
suffering serious casualties, while the Chinese side will be
able to absorb heavy casualties and prevail.
?Our principle is ?willing to sustain major losses of our
armed forces to defend even just one square inch of
land,?? the document says. ?If the U.S. forces lose
thousands or hundreds of men under our powerful strikes,
the anti-war sentiment within their country will force the
U.S. government to take the same path as they did in
Vietnam.?
Even so, Beijing is prepared to use its small strategic
nuclear force against the overwhelmingly superior United
States: ?In terms of deterrence, there is not any difference
in practical value. So far we have built up the capability
for the second and the third nuclear strikes and are fairly
confident in fighting a nuclear war. The PCC has decided
to pass through formal channels this message to the top
leaders of the U.S. This is one of the concrete measures
that we will take to prevent the escalation of war in the
spirit of being responsible.
?However, conceptually we are fully prepared for a
prolonged warfare.? Prolonged warfare will work to our
advantage and enable us to defeat the enemy, which will
be one of our strategic options to win the war under
extreme circumstances.?
(To read the full confidential Chinese document, click
here.) |
