TS TELECOM (www.tstelecom.com): ASPIRING TELECO Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : TS TELECOM (www.tstelecom.com): ASPIRING TELECO

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: John Trudeau who wrote (1463)	3/5/2000 3:34:00 PM
From: Gordo	Read Replies (3) of 1762

Re: JT off topic Thanks for the analysis. Let me see how many of your questions I can answer from my own DD. >(a) 1800 boepd exit for 2000, but what do they expect to average in 2000? LBR hit 1200 boepd in January, and is forecasting an average of 1500 boepd for the year (seems reasonable). >(b) Mgmt is unknown. I can't add a lot of insight on this one other than what is on their website. You may want to check out the Equity Link Investment Conference Series in Calgary on March 13 ( equity-link.com ). The conference is FREE and LBR will be there along with my other favorite small-cap OML (and some others as well)! > (c) More info wrt reserves As of December 31, 1998 LBR's reserves were evaluated by Gilbert Laustsen Jung Associates. Proven and probable reserves were 1,770,850 boe consisting of 69% oil and 31% natural gas. They are having an independent audit of their reserves as of the end of 1999 done right now, but my last info from the company on Feb. 12 was that they didn't have the results left, but that they should be significantly higher due to acquisitions and successful exploration in 1999. Using 1998 numbers, they have a reserve life of 4 years at 1200 boepd, but I suspect the new numbers should push this up to 6 or 7 years (a good question to ask them at the conference ;). >(d) Gas isn't as bullish as oil - the forecast is for average prices - they're 60/40 Granted, although gas is also a lot less volatile price wise. Cash flow estimates were based on a $2.50 price for gas, it is currently over $3. >(e) 13.7M shares and about $6.7MM debt, with unknown cash flow (guess about 400K / month) = may need to issue more shares to finance 2000 drilling I believe your cash flow numbers are low - at 1200 boepd we should be seeing something in excess of $500K per month growing to $600K - $700K as they increase production. They should easily be able to finance their exploration program for the year out of cash flow. I'm not even going to try to dive into a response on the number crunching. You are right that BEC using a forecast price of $19 is more conservative. I believe that something in the low $20's is reasonable - which should mean that BEC will exceed their cash flow forecast. Either way, both of these companies should be trading at around 4X cash flow, which should leave a lot of upside. gord

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next