Talk about "Year of the Dragon!" Is this true or simply more conspiracy "poo-poo?"
insightmag.com
CHINA WAR PLAN AGAINST TAIWAN AND U.S.
3/3/00 - By J. Michael Waller
The People?s Republic of China is actively planning a military invasion of Taiwan and is preparing to wage war against the United States ? including firing its small arsenal of strategic nuclear missiles on the territory of the United States ? if Washington attempts to defend the island. In an internal document from the Chinese Communist Party?s Central Military Commission to all its regional commanders, Beijing says it hopes to absorb Taiwan through nonviolent means but warns of an ?increased possibility for a military solution,? arguing: ?It is better to fight now than [in the] future ? the earlier, the better.?
In the document, (see "China Prepares for War") Beijing envisions a blitzkrieg-like attack on Taiwan, launching a ?first fatal strike? so that ?the Taiwan forces have no way to organize effective resistance.? Under this plan, ?we will be able to control Taiwan before the U.S. intervention and then concentrate our forces to fight the U.S.?
The paper, distributed to commanders in August 1999, urges military leaders to ?be well prepared for war? with Taiwan and, if necessary, the United States, following Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui?s ?two-country theory,? in which the Republic of China on Taiwan would seek independent statehood. The Communist Chinese leadership views Lee?s position as a threat to the territorial integrity of the People?s Republic and argues that if allowed to stand would promote mainland China?s disintegration by encouraging independence for Tibet and other occupied areas. The paper says that large-scale coastal and inland military exercises planned for Sept. 1999 were intended not only to intimidate Taiwan but ?to adapt our armed forces to cross-the-Straits operations.?
Beijing anticipates the passive support of Russia in a Taiwan invasion. A summit between Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Russian President Boris Yeltsin and others in Kazakhstan that same month was intended on Beijing?s part to help reduce ?the traditional pressure along our northeast and northwest borders, and increase the proportion of forces which can be moved to the southeast coastal regions,? as well as to keep open ?land routes during the war ? in case we are forced to fight a full-scale war against the U.S.?
Insight has obtained a copy of this startling document, which has been translated into English. (Click here to read the full document.) The purpose of the document is to make ?high-ranking commanders in non-combat as well as combat positions ? well aware of the following issues so as to better understand the strategic decisions made by the Party?s Central Committee and be well-prepared for the war in their units based on the rapidly-changing relationships with Taiwan.?
The document tells commanders to understand the party?s thinking behind its preparations and ?a wave of politically-oriented military exercises? intended ?to raise the political consciousness of all commanders and soldiers up to a level required by war.?
Peaceful reunification with Taiwan, according to the Central Military Commission paper, ?is still the best option? for Beijing?s long-term interests, as military options would be disruptive of the Party?s economic development goals. The document says it is very unlikely that European countries would aid in Taiwan?s defense, but anticipates that the U.S. would attempt to defend against an attack. Therefore, prior to an invasion of Taiwan, ?we must take into account the above [diplomatic] factors and use diplomatic leverage to minimize international resistance.?
Beijing?s crackdown on the Falun Gong spiritual group, the document says, was aimed at crushing separatist sentiment. ?To outlaw ?Falun Gong? was a preemptive measure aimed at the ultimate resolution of [the] Taiwan issue,? according to the document, ?not only eliminating domestic trouble, but paving the way for reunification as well.? The Party leaders seem pleased with the weakness of international protests: ?Negative international reaction has proven to be limited, and the protest from the U.S. was particularly pale and powerless, fully demonstrating that our Party has the ability and courage to gain advantage in complicated domestic and international struggles.?
Senior Chinese military officials, the document says, disclosed ?some information on strategic weaponry so that the U.S. will exercise some caution in decision-making and be aware that it would have to pay a price if it decided to intervene in a military conflict. The purpose is to prevent the U.S. from being deeply involved even if a war becomes unavoidable so that the losses on both sides of the Taiwan straits will be minimized throughout the war. The main point is deterrence, which is the test for a peaceful solution. The test is within the strategic scope of taking initiative and promoting good timing.?
Beijing is convinced that, even in its much weaker military state, it can prevail in a war against the United States. ?Taking into account of possible intervention by the U.S. and based on the development strategy of our country, it is better to fight now than [in the] future ? the earlier, the better,? the military document says. ?The reason being that, if worst comes to worst, we will gain control of Taiwan before full deployment of U.S. troops. In this case, the only thing the U.S. can do is fighting a war with the purpose of retaliation, which will be similar to the Gulf War against Iraq or the recent bombing of Yugoslavia as far as its operational objective is considered.? If the above scenario cannot be avoided, an early war will delay the success of our reform whereas a later war will jeopardize the full achievement of the reform.?
The document says China has experience in ?fighting the U.S. forces under modern warfare conditions. In that war, the Chinese forces were mainly responsible for air defense [of North Vietnam] and accumulated a whole set of experience in this regard.?
Beijing anticipates that the United States will not be able to maintain its forces in combat against China for an extended period. The document reasons that the conflict will not escalate into a nuclear missile exchange, because the U.S. will lose its will to fight and withdraw after suffering serious casualties, while the Chinese side will be able to absorb heavy casualties and prevail.
?Our principle is ?willing to sustain major losses of our armed forces to defend even just one square inch of land,?? the document says. ?If the U.S. forces lose thousands or hundreds of men under our powerful strikes, the anti-war sentiment within their country will force the U.S. government to take the same path as they did in Vietnam.?
Even so, Beijing is prepared to use its small strategic nuclear force against the overwhelmingly superior United States: ?In terms of deterrence, there is not any difference in practical value. So far we have built up the capability for the second and the third nuclear strikes and are fairly confident in fighting a nuclear war. The PCC has decided to pass through formal channels this message to the top leaders of the U.S. This is one of the concrete measures that we will take to prevent the escalation of war in the spirit of being responsible.
?However, conceptually we are fully prepared for a prolonged warfare.? Prolonged warfare will work to our advantage and enable us to defeat the enemy, which will be one of our strategic options to win the war under extreme circumstances.? |
