Not much on PCCW in this post --
In the last few months many people have warned me about the dangers of investing in a stock which people like the Li's control, and which, now, has a substantial interest from the Chinese Academy of Science and other parts of the government. I have talked to Taiwanese experts and HK investors. All of us recognize, I think, the uncertainties and even dangers in a company like PCCW (which is now heavily in debt). We all feel comfortable that Intel and CMGI and even Softbank are wrapped up in this deal. But there is nothing in the way of DD that we can do that will really reassure us. I find it very difficult to recommend this stock to other persons unless they are go for broke gamblers. Like it or not, we are all dependent on the skill and honesty of Richard Li and his coterie.
It is very difficult for the small investor to get in on interesting situations like PCCW. It was brought to my attention by one of my Chinese students six months ago. He had done some research and bought a few shares. I knew of Li Kashing, but nothing about Richard that I liked. I bought some anyway, and it went up, even though there was nothing really there. The whole PCCW thing was just talk and spoof.
Now it seems real.
I would think that everyone on this board was a high stakes gambler looking for a deal. I like to look at deals, however weird they might be. I liked the odds on Q in October 98. I wish I had had more people urging me to keep all of it forever, but I took some profit and invested it in some other stocks.
I have looked at XLA in the past, and simply did not believe I wanted to invest in hotels. It was a big a mistake. I didn't even buy Celera (another big mistake). I might even nibble at XLA this time. I see no evidence that it is a pump and dump. It may very well be. So many wildly successful stocks have no substance and are supported only by rumors which are often false. Everyone needs tips, and then should do their own due diligence. This applies to XLA as well as PCCW.
I have not and will not urge anyone to buy any stock. I think people ought to be in 'nuts and techs and biotechs, but damned if I know exactly which ones. I think everyone should spend as much time as he or she can spare by checking out his or her investments. It is cheap to bail out and change positions.
It is possible that we will all regret bailing out of PCCW at $3.30 and investing in something else XLA. I don't feel that way now, but I'll keep my eye on both of them and we shall see.
Skipping a post is very easy. |
