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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: carepedeum2000 who wrote (21693)	3/6/2000 12:43:00 AM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (1) of 57584

Two astounding facts: ORCL now has a bigger market cap than IBM whose PE is 25. MRVC is at 169 and I owned it about a year ago at $8 when some bear on a thread convinced me to dump it.(a-hole) Yes I'm pissed because I used to own ORCL, AFCI, CIEN, BVSN and QCOM all near their lows, but my feelings aside, what does this tell us? Is ORCL really worth anywhere near IBM? Is a 2000% gain in a year really supported by earnings and earnings potential? Maybe. But this is what confounds me about this crazy market. Value has become in the eyes of the beholders. Forward looking visionsaries or blind leading the blind? After a 2000% gain how much can a stock like MRVC go down if anything negative were to come out? Despite ORCL's success shouldn't IBM be worth ten times its market cap? LU just announced a 100 M deal in China and the stock went down. It's probably the biggest fibre optic company in the world and it's just recovering from being bashed to hell for missing a quarter. If LU can fall 30% in two days what if one of the high-fliers misses a beat or fails to live up to lofty expectations? Everyone presumes Lu is losing business to these smaller companies. But I flew through O'Hare recently and saw piles of LU f.o. cable crates piled to the ceiling for their refurbishing there. If O'Hare buys LU who else does? If China buys Lu who else does? Foreign customers generally feel more comfortable with brand names. I see IBM systems everywhere, probably more than any other brand. Who will be the winners of the future? Am I the one who's blind here? Just asking. Same logic applies to bio-techs vs. pharmas. Who really owns the future? This question is a very longterm one. Maybe not even relevant at all to this coming week's action.

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