Dan3,
<So what's up? Unless they went from zero to a million a week, there should have been decent volume for some time now, so why is Dell still clearly trying to discourage 800MHZ purchases? Is fastest speed demand really that strong? (and not-quite-fastest speed demand really that poor?) Are the top speed PIII binsplits very, very small?
If the market is that hungry for MHZ, what does that say for the prospects of PIII and Athlon over the next few months?>
And to top it all off you should ask another question. How can Intel earn roughly 2 billion per quarter?
Allow me to give MHO. First of all, there are two segments that Intel sells into, the consumer and business segments. Unless you point out some data that indicates penetration of AMD Athlon's into the much larger business segment ( like fortune 500 companies ordering from Fry's or something ), then nothing has changed in this segment except that the post-Y2K affect is favoring Intel's business. Now competition in the much more visible consumer segment seems to have changed a bit. Clearly Mhz conscious consumers will have plenty of Athlon's to choose from and fewer Intel based systems. This is definitely good for AMD. Intel in fact is hoping the sweet spot is at much lower Mhz. This may not be by design, but if their costs are low they can offer excellent price/performance systems. If they are right and Athlon can not penetrate the business segment soon, the Athlon will be fighting it out with lower Mhz machines based on price and this will drag down Athlon into territory it does not want to compete in. This is a big if, I agree.
Finally, note that in the interview that Jerry gave in which he was so confident about AMD selling more 1Ghz processors than Intel, he compared it at "mid year", not the "end of the year". This is significant, since by the end of the year Intel will have an answer to the high end consumer segment, which at the current time seems to be in the hands of AMD. All JMHO. Good luck.
SK |
