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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp
SFTBY 72.96-5.2%1:10 PM EST
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To: Becky B who wrote (4234)3/6/2000 2:56:00 AM
From: Seeker of Truth  Read Replies (3) of 6018
 
This is not a price movement forecast; I never do such a thing even to myself. It's just a recount of the reasons why I hold onto 9984. Last year about this time, CMGI in which I then had an enormous position had tripled or so, I forget the details. Then it dropped 60% or so. On the way down I bailed out and missed the spectacular rise which developed later in the year. My reasons for bailing out were 2. One: "The great profits from getting into the Internet early have already been made. From now on it will be very competitive." Two: "The internet is still not so pervasive as people think. There are not yet so many daily profits from the businesses themselves(as opposed to IPO's) as people think." But CMGI benefitted from the experience and skill of their managers which was much greater than that of their competitors; and also there was a lot more room for growth than I expected. I should have held all the CMGI I owned instead of losing some of my capital in capital gains taxes. I think both CMGI and Softbank are building empires which will last. True also, probably for HongKong's PCCW, 1186. Do you remember Pincus Warburg and the short sell recommendation? Anyway I don't believe in seers that know what next week's prices will be. I also only have contempt for "technical analysis". Let's admit the limits on both our knowledge and the forecastability of near term stock prices.
My forecast: Softbank will grow a lot more, in the long term.
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