SB,
Apples and oranges. I am looking at the long term, you the short. After early seventies and late 80's the US stock market came roaring back within a few years. It is not money, it is the underlying soci-economic and business structure that matters. I like the US environment in this regard. I must confess that I am biased, as I work here, and enjoy working here. So, no, I am not betting against history in any way. In fact, if the internet revolution turns out to be of similar scale as the telephone-and-automobile revolution, I have history solidly on my side. The Great Depression was largely an issue of faulty Central Bank policy which decided to drain liquidity at the wrong moment (under public pressure). It seems to me that Greenspan knows better. So, overall, the odds look good to me over the next 34 years (my investing horrizon).
BTW, go easy on tulips. That has been used to death over the past 5 years by novice business writers.
Finally, any two charts with similar long term trends tend to be highly correlated. Means nothing as far as future prediction goes. The chart readers have been proven wrong repeatedly. Ultimately, it's the fundamentals, my friend!
-BGR. |
