Overhyped Wireless Web
Still Lacks a 'Killer App'
By JOHN DODGE
Special to THE WALL STREET JOURNAL INTERACTIVE EDITION
The dawn of the "Wireless Web" is here, with pushers and pundits
predicting the end of the tethered world. Pecking away at some small
digital appliance, we'll all be accessing e-mail, ordering books as we cross
the street, booking air travel while driving to work and reserving a car from
an altitude of 40,000 feet. There will be no escape from the Web, they say.
Maybe someday, but for now, this much is certain: The hype of the
promised wireless land outstrips the reality. No one has yet identified the
"killer app" that will compel us to learn how to navigate a complicated cell
phone and digital device rolled in to one.
Only a handful of the spring crop of wireless applications are even mildly
interesting. The rest are either niche-focused or, in a word, lame.
My wireless perambulations occurred on a Palm VII, loaned from a
colleague. The wireless service averages $30 a month for information and
services that are, frivolous or attainable in and easier and cheaper way.
News abounds from such sources as ESPN.com, wsj.com,
ABCNews.com and salon.com. But I've been getting headlines sent to my
pager for years.
If you're bidding on eBay for gold tie clasps, a wireless device could alert
you when there are only 10 minutes left before the close of an auction for
an item you really want. The same mentality applies to wireless stock
trading, an oft-cited killer app. But buying and selling stock every minute is
not something most sane people do.
How about ordering a dozen red roses for $73 a pop? How about
downloading Zagat's restaurant reviews? A New York-based colleague of
mine who eats out all the time finds that one useful. Checking what houses
have come on to the market? Hmmm, the listings seem sort of thin, and
they're only in the San Francisco area.
One of the most popular wireless applications
in Europe is checking horoscopes. So, using
my Palm VII, I ventured to Go.com to get
mine. On that day, it told me what I already
knew: I have too much to do and I should find
a friend to calm me down. "A lot of these bad
ideas will go down rapidly," says Carl Zetie, a
director at Giga Information Group, a research
firm.
Many wireless offerings can best be described
as experiments. Tiny screens strain the sharpest eyes. The services are
expensive and slow. An average Web page download takes at least 25
seconds because wireless speeds are about one fourth that of today's
slowest desktop modem. Third generation wireless, known as "3G,"
promises speed of two megabits per second, but that is far in the future, as
most wired desktops now can't get to the Web that fast.
Overcoming these problems won't mean a wit if the killer app can't be
found. "The hype about the wireless Web is driven by Silicon Valley and
people who work on Wall Street. That leaves the people in the 3,000 miles
in between scratching their heads and asking why they need this," adds Mr.
Zetie.
No one is writing off the wireless Web as a cheap fad. It's more a matter
of when and how it will come together. In 1984, there were 203,600
cell-phone subscribers in the U.S. Today, the Cellular Telecommunications
Industry Association (www.wow-com.com) claims there are around 85
million subscribers to wireless services. It's not hard to imagine digital
devices on similar growth curve. But that's a long way away.
"You're not going to sit there with a four-line display phone and fill out
forms to buy a computer. You're going to receive time sensitive information
that is easy to scan, highly personalized and easy to transact with," says
Mark Zohar, a research director at Forrester Research Inc.
For example, Amazon.com could zap you a message when the latest Tom
Clancy book comes in. Or impulse buyers could order a movie sound
track while they are still in the theater, explains Mr. Zohar.
Like I said, mildly interesting.
Acceptance also depends on the gadgets. Palm Inc.'s handheld device is
by far the easiest to use, claiming about 70% of the handheld computer
market. Several million have been sold.
While the Palm VII is the first Palm device with wireless capability, some
experts believe smart phones will be the way most of us will tap into the
wireless Web. That's because millions of us already have a cell phone.
Adding on some data capabilities seems like a natural extension. And
owning a cell phone already presumes a relationship with a
telecommunications carriers.
"The personal digital assistant will tap out as smart phones take hold," says
Mr. Zohar. "Smart phones will be a bit larger than a cell phone, and will
have a 11-line display, built-in dictionary and voice activation." Examples
have started to emerge, and the floodgates should open late this year from
the likes of Qualcomm Inc., Telefon AB L.M. Ericsson , Motorola Inc.
and Nokia Corp.
As for all the hype, you'll just have to put up with it. After all, the world's
richest software, computer and telecommunications companies are
throwing billions of dollars at the wireless Web. The mergers, alliances and
spectacular IPOs such as the one from Palm last week will be part of it all.
Their message is this: What's on the Web is not the only thing that's
important. It's how we get there, too. But as one of my journalism school
professors once said, "Don't tell me. Show me." |
