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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology

STX 279.35

+0.3%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Mark Madden who wrote (7389)	3/7/2000 10:42:00 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	of 7841

>> It will take years to increase shareholder value this much by selling disk drives. << Mark don't despair. VRTS achieved it $60 billion market cap just by making 50c per share (last year). SEG could easily top that or double it this year. However, it takes a special kind of madness to give a 200 p/e valuation to a stock. As everyone knows, the greater fools are drawn to growth. I think it is a safe bet that DD companies will have higher rev, higher margins and higher earnings for several consecutive Q's this year and next. Will that cause a speculative frenzy ? I have no idea. But it did last time (1997). And it is happening now for companies that fit the profile. The missing ingredient for DD stocks is broker upgrades. It seems analysts are still forecasting the coming collapse of disk drive prices. The same way they were forecasting further collapse in oil prices. When their conviction shifts, that's when the party starts. Regards, -Sarmad

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