Bull - the next laggard pops are TX CHV UCL P COC OXY ! - MARGIN a' MAJOR, or a "Mini-M" !
...damn; I "aint" selling any of my LT OSX plays - allways said there can be no BOOM 2000 without $30 FLC & $20 GLBL -and they have room to run, holding my 3 main positions in RIG DO FLC in some decent size and a smattering of small caps and other scatterd small positions in VTS PGO etc . I'm thinking I can add more driller, or service positions on a moderate pullback - not to rain on anyone's parade, but we'll have one... no reason to sell anything; but the take profits & rotate play is not over yet imho. - I just want to LEVERAGE those companies who are most leveraged to commodity prices - THE PRODUCERS here. I am heeding the risk factor in my use of leverage here - I want to protect my gains off of this run. OSX 115-120 is at greater multiple's valuationwise than I remember in many cases during the 97-98 run up - be carefull on margin in the runners folks... if you aren't on margin - no worries; it's going to be much, much higher - ride 'em. But, anyone 2:1, or 3:1 leveraging this breakout here is NOT trading, or investing - just gambling imho... take your margin profits starting here and on each move up imo - keep your core postions, but take your "margined" gains & rotate !
FWIW - my portfolio mix is:
20% OSX
30 % mid cap E&P's - UPR PXD XTO EOG BR NBL KMG BSNX
20% small cap basket - mainly e&p's - some service co's
30% - NOW in Major's, mini-majors & Integrateds - TX CHV P UCL MRO COC OXY - adding strongly here.
Last couple of days buying KMG BSNX - just sold BRR for a pop and bought more BSNX, I like BSNX better LT, spun out of a little XTO today for more KMG, adding bits of refiner laggard TSO - never thought I'd own these in size; but biggest buys were margining CHV TX P UCL - whodathunkit ?
...just look at the % upside in these majors & mini-majors; 40-50% to recent highs and ZERO "significant" risk here.
I've made toooo damn much money to chase SII SLB BJS et al here on "margin" only to get whipsawed 15-30% real easy.
UPR has 80% upside just to its Sept highs folks... CHV TX P UCL - 40-50% upside to prior highs x margin = a doubled MARGIN 'a MAJOR play setting up here imo.
Rambus up 21 to $349 - I remember reading "FA" saying $100 was the end of the world... Rambus doesn't bother me here to the extent of some of these 2nd, 3rd tier companies - there are some incredible short plays setting up in tech.
Anyone catch the caller on Bob Brinker's financial radio show this weekend that sell's, or does portfolio hedging/insurance for Hedge Funds, Institions, Mutual funds etc ? - he's said the degree of worry among portfolio managers is near historic high's - they are hedging with his firm against a total market collapse. I didn't catch all the call, but something perhaps like a "deductible" where maybe the first 20% is NOT insured, or covered; but his "hedges, or insurance" on their portfolio's kicks in on 30%+ retrace in the major indices. He talked about the high degree of complex derivates - sounded just like Long Term Capital all over again.... This guy buys complex deriviates - hedges with puts, call's, short's etc... bottomline was he was scared and his clients are even more scared - but, no one wants to be the first one off the ride ??? |
