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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: JLS who wrote (21869)	3/7/2000 5:29:00 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (5) of 57584

Julie, if you want to beat the tech crowds to the exits, you need to start your plan today and work it over the next 2 to 3 weeks.. . .I think we will rally again. . .on techs. . .the Dow is in a bear market and I think it will flounder slowly from here for a while. . .without much conviction either way. . .not anticipating a "Dow" rally in the near future. . . yes they are good bargains. . . so what. . . a Yugo is a bargain, when compared to a Lexus. . .which one would you rather own? As for selloff, last year on March 23, I predicted that the top would rally hard for another week, then begin selling off. . .with the hardest part of the selloff coming April 15. . . that is pretty much the way it went down. I see all of that happening a bit sooner this year. . .but not in the same manner. . .last year, as earnings came out, those stocks sold off. . . .I don't believe there will be good opportunities for earnings plays this year. . . except on the beaten down tech stocks. . .[yes there are some] So as the Dow gets hit, I am looking for beaten down tech bargains. . .and very few Dow stocks. . .some value plays. . . and quite a bit of foreign. Already I am starting to go foreign with US traded issues. . .bought AIS and ALA today. . .so you could say that I am already rotating. . . very very slowly. But that way I get my choice. Todays buy of ATHM was with the intent of holding through summer. . AOL is another I am looking at for a hold. . . Keep an eye on small caps as a whole. .. I believe they will give us the best early indication of a turn in the markets this year. During the late summer doldrums. . . we will do our STRATEGIC buying of the very best tech stocks. . . this is when we go around from garage sale to garage sale hoarding those antique lamps. . .so that next March, we can be sellers at a premium. The tech markets NEED to selloff in the summer. . .and I believe they will. . dotted by abbreviated life. . .especially early in July. . . this is good for the markets and everyone wants it. . . best not to try to fight it. . . don't know anyone that has ever succeeded doing that. Shorting similar positions is one way to hold positions without taking the tax loss. . .it locks in the gains. . .so you win whether market goes up or down. . .this is especially helpful so you do not need to selloff core positions in the best of the best.. . Greenspan doesn't have much effect on todays tech stocks. . . companies use stock for currency. . not bank loans. The market action on his words is contrived, IMO. We are being "force feared". Hope that helps. Rande Is

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