We had a good day, did we not? Now, here are a few things we need to think about. You know how I have talked from time to time about oil, it is really getting to the pain point for people who got drunk on cheap gasoline.. (crude up $2 today)
Second is what will happen to the "new economy" companies, who rely on jit inventory, who rely on Taiwan for their computer chips, drives, etc., if China attacks the island?
They will become "old economy" companies in an internet minute, that is what will happen to them...This is going to become serious as this situation unfolds. This can become very ugly, very fast.
Our micro cap dogs will continue to get the $$ rotation, at least that is what I expect.
>OPEC Destroys Dow Futures
Crude oil prices spiked higher in their largest move since the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to cut
production 7%, one year ago. The potentially inflationary spike in
energies helped whack Dow futures which came under pressure early
from a large drop in DJIA component Procter & Gamble (PG).
Energy Analyst Phil Flynn (I know this guy) of Alaron Trading commented that "within
OPEC there are growing signs of dissension and a strike in Nigeria
is causing fear that we may lose some oil flow in a market that is
already trying to squeeze each drop. The continuing big question is
just how tight are supplies and the API tonight will give us
further insight. Will the SUV drivers decide to give up their fat
cars for lent when this fat Tuesday stocks report is released
because we?re headed for $2.00 per gallon?"
The US government did little to assuage fears. Energy Secretary
Richardson said on the "Today" show Tuesday that he expects
volatile prices even beyond OPEC's March 27 meeting regarding
production limits. Richardson also said he "hopes" gasoline prices
will not reach $2 a gallon by summer, a comment supporting the move
higher.
Flynn also pointed out that the Energy Information Administration -
EIA - said "even if OPEC raises production, gasoline prices are
headed sharply higher."
The market is also watching the results of a meeting between
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar-Zanganeh and his counterpart from
Saudi Arabia. Iran, OPEC's second largest producer does not want to
cut production--it is already producing at near-capacity and has
the most to gain by maintaining quotas?and may be influential in
convincing OPEC members to leave production at current levels.
The market is also awaiting data from the American Petroleum
Institute's report on US stockpiles. "No one wants to be caught
short in this market ahead of the API," one broker said.
Technically, crude and unleaded gasoline have been in very strong
uptends (ADX Readings of 37 and 55, respectively) and have been
dominating the Momentum-5 List. April crude (CLK0) rallied 6%,
ending up 1.95 at 34.13. Unleaded gas (HUK0) finished .0366 higher
at 1.0191, heating oil (HOK0) climbed .0293 while natural gas
(NGK0) fell .051 to 2.799.
The surging energy prices prompted by OPEC's coordinated production
cuts raises the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates.
Interest rate-sensitive blue chip stocks declined on the prospect
of higher rates and also declined as PG's decline made traders even
more jittery about "value" stocks. March Dow futures (DJH0) tumbled
405.0 at 9760.0, S&P futures (SPH0) declined 43.50 to 1351.50 and
NASDAQ 100 futures (NDH0) also capitulated later in the session to
end down 103.50 at 4394.00.
Rising oil prices and declining equities sent mixed messages to the
bond market. Bonds are also in a strong uptrend and are on the
Pullback From High LIst. March contract (USH0) closed down 2/32 at
94 25/32.< |
