Pharmos need some fuel to sustain price, cohort-3 will not provide enough but for a run down (my view).
Cohort-3 did not surprise to the positive side with decrease mortality, it was "timidly" suggested that it could have been.
Cohort-3 did not confirm improved neurological outcome during 6 month follow up period, the "finding-excuse" that the drug group had worst initial Glasgow Score and initial CT lesions vs placebo, is not a hard fact based to build on.
Cohort-3 indeed confirm ability of dexanabinol to decrease ICP and safety, the only positive is not strong enough to assured the momentun crowd.
"We felt it was extremely important to take quick advantge of the improvement in the Company'stock price" said Robert Cook, VP and CFO. This is an honest, but not a desirable PR sentence, it sounds like the price is the best we could get and we rush, not taking chances!
Why should I as small speculator/investor take the chance? If it is going to $30 or $80 (range of some recent speculation} then the Company must wait. But I do agree with the company consolidating its position for further leverage, this will not translate in higher prices
Posible fuel:
1. Partner for tamoxifen-analogs (easier now with patent, moderate to strong depending in upfront deal).
2. Partners for other territories for eye products (moderate fuel).
3. Partner for emulsomes(weak fuel, maybe even selling the technology for some cash).
4. Partner for dexanabinol/trauma (strong fuel, but fat chance unless they give up big in royalties %).
5. Partner for dexanabinol/other indications (moderate due to lack of any human studies).
6. Outstanding data on Journal and/or Congress (weak fuel)it will be already out, unless the perception at the peer review meeting could change the market perception.
7. Recent venture capital is for the long (strong fuel)but I doubt it, unless they are privy to "partner negotiations"
(I doubt it).
Position: Out of fuel. Expect consolidation in the $4 to $6 range. |
