I could be wrong, of course, but I consider the "slowness" is almost entirely due to delays in GWs and distribution channels coming on stream, not to a lack of ultimate demand.
When mgmt was saying back in December that they'd be shipping 40K phones per month at the start of the year, and it was obvious that there'd only be (at best) 9-10 GWs operating, I remember suggesting that there would be a buildup of unsold inventory. Whether mgmt will ever 'fess up or not, I'm convinced they solved that problem by not building the phones in the first place.
I look at the problem this way: if each Gateway, a year from now, is distributing 3K phones per month, we'll be adding subscribers at a rate of 100K/month. That would be a booming success, most people would agree.
With only nine GWs for most of this first quarter, the best ones only starting this month and several others in pretty weak-for-G* markets, and with a "green" distribution chain, we'll be lucky if we get 20K terminals into users' hands by the end of March. But each GW that comes on line brings with it a new market and distribution network, plus the earlier GW distribution channels get smarter and more efficient. So the sub growth rate for several months should be exponential.
That's my theory, anyway, and I'm sticking to it (until/unless facts prove otherwise). |
