IMHO, T will acquire ATHM as ATHM had more subs (1.15 MM by end 99) - according to Message 13126971 -
and signs up subs faster than anyone else (will add > 2.8 MM subs in 2000) according to the CFO in Message 13126683
In addition ATHM has had a great portal - no. 5 - which is necessary to grab eyeballs. Little wonder why YHOO & AOL had such huge valuation for their ability to grab and retain eyeballs.
ATHM has had so many Joint Venture w/ international markets, and DJ also.
AT&T owns 26 percent of Excite AtHome but a 58 percent voting stake. Comcast and Cox have the ability to veto major decisions, however.
By 2002, ATHM will have 6MM subs. Even if T wants to divest ATHM, it would not dumb ATHM at such a low price. As any sane investor, T would try to get the highest possible bid for its stake. T owns all ATHM class B shrs. Besides, Cox and Comcast won't let T do anything stupid to hurt their investments either. That's called check and balance.
In order to get DOJ's approval by end of 3/00, T needs to make a decision soon. This would be an excellent catalyst for stock.
Who T really fears are WCOM and AOL. There ain't no way T would sell it to AOL nor WCOM. The later already had xDSL, cable is not a problem since it will be open in 6/2002.
T might sell to MSFT & CHTR if it doesn't want to get into content.
I still think T will buyout ATHM as it wants one-stop-shopping for all its local, long distance, 2-way interactive, cable modem/home networking broadband, TV programming, wireless thru McCaw & Cellular One. If T decide to divest RoadRunner near end of 3/2000, it is a sure bet that it will buyout ATHM. |
