shrpblnd
I am largely a lurker, but have a few posts on this SI thread ... mostly asking for information about the company. I am not a TA guru, but do often use some seat-of-the-pants TA in helping with making decisions. And in the spirit of having ?new blood? aboard, I may as well stick my neck out and provide some amateur TA input. Who knows, maybe it will stimulate more conversation on this thread.
First of all, the chart prior to mid-November appears sufficiently different from more recent price action to warrant excluding it from this TA discussion. From mid-November to 2/25/00 the stock appeared to be trading an ascending triangle. This is a continuation pattern, which means the trend in place before the triangle is not broken. I really do not know, however, what the previous trend was.
In any case, it does appear that we broke out from the triangle. We all know the break out was strong and to the upside. The top line of the triangle should now be support and approaching it (if we are that unfortunate), will be a big test. Currently, the top triangle line crosses the $12.5/share area, and by next week or so, should be about $13/share. (I constructed this line by running my mouse over the intra-day highs - no paper, just eye balling).
Based on more recent price action, however, I would look for week support at about $14.5. The more we test that support without breaking below it, the more predictable and solid it becomes. If we break it, look for another untested (and therefore week) support at about 13. After that, I see well tested, solid support at about $8.0/share.
Full disclosure: I am long since November at $4 and change. I doubled my position in March at nearly $13. I believe the company is well managed, has a leadership position in its market, and that the market itself will become much larger over the next several years. My decisions to enter positions into CNTR were not based on TA, but more on intuition and a bullish outlook for their market.
I would use the support numbers as red flags where breaking through them should signal a re-evaluation of original assumptions. Or for the really aggressive, breaking through them could signal the "on sale now" signal.
Comments, criticism, or elaboration is welcomed.
ryno |
