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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: LindyBill who wrote (19590)3/10/2000 1:58:00 AM
From: A.J. Mullen  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
Lindy, One of your reasons for selling is mine for buying!
The rest of my portfolio has been "going ballistic." The thing about ballistic trajectories is they also come down fast. I try to maintain the proportions I allocated sometime ago within my portfolio - at least until I see a change in the fundamentals. I have been selling some shares of the stocks that have risen very quickly recently. Indeed, I have even reduced my proportional allocation in some of those stocks.

To buy those stocks that have risen, is to follow the market. I try to anticipate it with what is essentially a system of dollar cost averaging, applied to capital.

I agree that there may not be any great upward surge in Qcom stock in the near future. That's OK. I think it suits management to have a stable stock price rather than a somewhat higher one subject to larger fluctuations. Stability in the stock price makes acquisitive negotiations easier.

The trouble is: how do you predict the next surge? The Ericsonn capitulation came pretty much out of the blue. Say, Vodafone were to announce that they had decided to rip out GSM for CDMA; what do you think that would do for the stock price? I am not predicting that, but it is one of many possibilities, each with a low probability, that could lead to surge. The thing is that all these low probailities sum to a reasonable chance that there will be a positive surprise some time relatively soon. How soon? I don't know. That's why I am maintaining my proportional allocation by buying stock.
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